All Speculation

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain

Disclaimer: No content here is intended as investment advice and is presented for informational and entertainment value only. The author may or may not have positions in the markets discussed (as if it even mattered), so you've been warned.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Our rally, right or wrong.

I can’t remember where I read it earlier today, but someone was quoted on as saying something to the effect that the current rally “is so unexpected and so hated”. Now it looks like Howard Lindzon hates it too, probably more than anything else he is currently hating (but all that aside, he plays it right). It doesn’t feel like a wall of worry, people are just pissed off that equities have kept climbing. So I think hate is the best word to describe this rally to 10K.

I am currently trading a strategy based on some ideas that are so simple I find it embarrassing. And I’m trying to automate them because I almost can’t bear to make the trades. And I think that’s why I’m finding some consistent success with them, they are trades that are hard to take. I came to this conclusion:

Every day in the market is a personal battle between being right and making money.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Anchor

Dow 10000. Seems obvious. Exactly. Don’t we all feel good?

Here’s a possible way I think this plays out. We bang around at this level for a week or so, and then pull back. Then the pundits come out and say the market is over done (finally). We pull back a bit and chop around indecisively for around a month, adding fuel to the worry. It makes another run but is quickly rejected. Of course, that becomes the headline, and we start to hear “head and shoulders”. Back down in the chop. Equities are dead. Right. Then when we’re not looking, we inch back up and through the number. The media reports it, but not with as much gusto, balloons and confetti as they did the first two times. Instead of “investors cheered <insert some factor> and sent the Dow above 10000”, it’s now “the Dow managed to hold above 10000 today…”. Then we start the climb for the last 10% or so. Probably helped by rising rates around the world to push the USD lower and make equities an attractive value store. Because by this point, the optimistic news of an economic recovery is likely all priced in. As we begin to get euphoric, the Fed will have to eventually step in and take some of the wind out of cheap money and it’s growing supply. This will strengthen the USD, knocking equities back down. “Nervous investors took profits on the specter of rising inflation”. Back to 10K, rinse and repeat. Take a look at crude prices bumping $100/bbl in Nov 08 for the chart example.

Then again, maybe we just straight line up or down through here, but I think this story is a little more interesting.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Set your clocks ahead

Just a heads up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chicago-pmi-subscribers-drive-market-down-after-flash-look-bad-number

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Game Prep

Here’s an interesting link on the procession that NFL coaches go through on their way up the ladder. Breaking down every play, studying the nuances for years before moving up. Sometimes I think is (or is portrayed by vendors) way too easy to get involved in trading. I’m no great example myself, trying out strategies with live positions. Then again, maybe it’s a good thing it is so easy, if you are willing to put the time in that others can’t or won’t.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Recommended Reading: Andy Kessler’s “Wall Street Meat” & “Running Money”

I recently read both these books, though not in the order written (Meat comes before Money). Kessler was a stock analyst latter turned fund manager, and the books give an account of both perspectives.

“Wall Street Meat” starts with his career as an analyst. Kessler has a bit of a cynical streak, so it covers the industry in a way you’d mostly expect – the rare sell calls, difference between retail and institutional customers, and the changing of the industry with the birth of the celebrity analyst. Still, it is quite entertaining and an enjoyable read.

In “Running Money”, he moves into his life starting a fund. This isn’t an account of a fast moving trader, so don’t expect that kind of tale. While it took place in the go-go internet period, it is more an account of the bigger picture around which he framed his trades and there are certainly some lessons and ideas presented there. When he launched his fund, the first questions he generally go was “what is your edge”? How are you different from everyone else and how does that translate into making money? Investor, speculator, day-trader – call it whatever you want, but that’s a pretty key concept that you have to be able to answer.

Kessler started to focus in on “scale”. That is, situations where changing of an input of one unit causes an output of multiple units. A lot of times this is a product’s pricing, if the price drops by half, will 3 or more times as many people buy it? This is the origins of big shifts in market development. His strategy (edge) was looking for small companies that had a scale opportunity that could result in explosive growth either directly or related products. Now, every small cap picker will say they look for companies with explosive growth, but rarely do you find someone who can give a solid concept behind it, going beyond a specifics to a company. Think of industries that have scale compared to those that do not, like software versus airlines, or pharmaceuticals versus oil.

Aside from running his fund, Kessler does put forth some interesting ideas. Such that intellectual property (IP) is a process of continuing improvement, rather than something fixed that you hold a lock on. How much are prior versions of Microsoft Windows worth now? The basis of protecting your IP is trying to give you enough time to improve it and make it obsolete.

Another bolder topic he takes on is trade deficits. While most of the populace will say that the continuous trade deficit that the US is running is a negative situation and a drag on our growth, Kessler argues that is an incorrect view in the current age and that the US runs a marginal profit surplus. This is particularly so in our relationship with China. The US company develops the product, has an overseas company manufacture it for a small fixed cost (scale of 1), where it is sold back in the US and the US company makes the bulk of the profit and the growth. I don’t know if I agree with all of this concept, only history is going to prove that, but it is a compelling argument to explain how the US has been able to get away with deficits for this long. Think of something like an iPhone, where I’m willing to say that the bulk of the profits go to Apple, not the Chinese manufacturer.

While not trading books, they where both enjoyable and “Running Money” probably gets the nod for having some bigger investment concepts. If nothing else, it pounds home another concept I’ve found reliable – if you ask someone a question and they can’t answer it quickly, or the answer is to a different question, you probably want to say thanks and never deal to much with them again.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Useful Utility

I run Windows XP and a single monitor. This machine is over 2 years old, but still robust enough (thanks to dual core processors) to handle my needs for trading and programming. The biggest issue is having a trading application open (NinjaTrader) with a workspace about 6 views open, and trying to do other things while waiting for a trading situation. While I’d love to get another monitor, I’ll hold off another year until Windows 7 comes out, then upgrade everything.

Too get by for now, I’m using virtual desktop manager that Microsoft offers as a power tool add on. With it, you have all your applications open but it gives you 4 different “views” of what applications are maximized and minimized, making it quick to switch between what you want to see rather than doing it manually. Install it from the link above (each tool’s download is on the right side), then right click on the task bar, hover over Toolbars, and then click Desktop Manager. You’ll get 5 views to click on, one for each virtual desktop and then a split screen of all four.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Flash Order(flow)

There's outrage brewing against high frequency trading (HFT) of equities in the news lately (good links here, here, here and here). At first I thought this was the usual backlash against a new target for our economic condition (we'd grown tired of sub-prime mortgages, TARP and Obama's birth certificate). Then I read a little more about flash orders in the context of the current order handling rules. Briefly, flash orders are those received by one of the many equities exchanges that are marketable (would execute immediately) against the best market. But in this case, the network that originally received the order doesn't have the best price, and is required to forward the order to the best market if they can't fill it. So they hold the order up about 30 milliseconds and show it internally to their "members" who then have a chance to fill the order if they please. Otherwise, they route it to the best market.

The lifeblood of a market-maker is getting order flow, which leads to transaction volume. And that, is how the saying goes, they make the money - buying on the bid and selling on the ask, in volume, volume, volume! And if you get to much action on one side of the market and you don't have the inventory, you lay it off on someone else. So you are more than willing to do business at where the market is trading if you can easily scratch against another player. And most of the exchanges will pay out for trades that add liquidity. So by filling flash orders at both sides of the market, you can make the spread and be paid for providing the liquidity. (There are anecdotes about pokerbots that are good enough to play a barely break even game, but making money in rake back deals and being profitable overall. It's a similar strategy).

The exchanges are in competition with each other to get order flow and the resulting transaction fees, so with flash orders the can execute and boast about more volume, as well as saying how little their executions impact the market since they are being internally absorbed. But as a HFT, I can certainly see the order flow getting really lopsided and easily front-run those orders, especially since I know they are going to be held. The dream of every trader.